warfareMass Aerial StrikeUkrainesupported 72.8

Russia launches near-400-drone-and-missile attack on Ukraine

Russia fired nearly 400 drones and dozens of missiles at civilian areas in Ukraine as Moscow intensified efforts along the front and analysts pointed to the possible start of a spring offensive. Ukrainian officials said the attack killed at least six people and injured dozens more.

curated-2026fifth-waveukrainerussiawarfaredrone-attackmissile-strikecivilian-harm

Published

3/24/2026

Current public event date

Source base

2 sources

Evidence records attached to this event

Actor field

4 ranked

3 primary / 1 structural

Incident links

1

Analyses connected to this incident

Editorial note

Curated from AP reporting on the March 24 strike wave and the accompanying signs of a Russian spring offensive.

Event harm

87.4

Overall event-level harm score

Top culpability

63.6

Russian military command

Confidence

72.8

How stable the current public reading is

Top responsibility

72.8

Highest primary responsibility before event harm is applied

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Current harm

87.4

The live event-harm score on this post

Current confidence

72.8

How stable the current public reading is

Source base

2

Public sources currently attached to this event

Event harm

Harm context

The public harm score is grounded in who bears the harm, what protections are in play, and the broader social fallout.

Who is harmed

Civilians in targeted Ukrainian cities and regions, emergency responders, families displaced by strikes, and communities living under repeated aerial attack.

Rights or laws at risk

The right to life, civilian protection during armed conflict, housing security, and freedom from indiscriminate or disproportionate attacks.

Societal impact

Large strike waves increase civilian trauma, strain air defenses and emergency services, and deepen the long-term destruction and instability caused by the war.

Overview

Highest ranked primary actor

Start with the strongest direct attribution before moving into the wider field and structural enablers.

Russian military command

Rank #1 with the highest weighted culpability in the current public reading.

Culpability

63.6

Weighted contribution

Confidence

80.0

Attribution stability

Rank #1Authorizermilitary unitRussia

Russian military command

Ranked in the public field as a authorizer with a current responsibility band of major.

stable 80.0

Responsibility

72.8

Actor-level role score before event harm is applied.

Culpability

63.6

Final contribution after event harm weighting.

Confidence

80.0

Current stability of the attribution.

Evidence links

1

Attached source links for this actor.

Why this actor is ranked here

A coordinated strike package of this scale indicates command-level authorization or tolerance rather than a one-off field-level action.

1 evidence link

Chart views

Score breakdown

Switch between ranked culpability, top-actor dimension mix, contribution balance, and revision timeline.

Ranked actors

4

Actors represented in the ladder and contribution views.

Top actor

Russian military command

Highest-ranked primary actor in the current public reading.

Revisions

21

Live revisions contributing to the timeline chart.

Active chart

Ladder

Current visualization mode.

Ranked field

Other primary actors

These actors sit in the direct chain of authorship, authorization, interpretation, planning, or execution.

Rank #2Executormilitary unitRussia

Russian strike units

Ranked in the public field as a executor with a current responsibility band of substantial.

stable 80.0

Responsibility

68.4

Actor-level role score before event harm is applied.

Culpability

59.8

Final contribution after event harm weighting.

Confidence

80.0

Current stability of the attribution.

Evidence links

1

Attached source links for this actor.

Why this actor is ranked here

The units that launched the drones and missiles hold the clearest direct responsibility for carrying out a strike wave that AP said hit civilian areas and killed or injured civilians.

1 evidence link
Rank #3PlanneragencyRussia

Russian targeting planners

Ranked in the public field as a planner with a current responsibility band of substantial.

supported 68.0

Responsibility

64.8

Actor-level role score before event harm is applied.

Culpability

56.6

Final contribution after event harm weighting.

Confidence

68.0

Current stability of the attribution.

Evidence links

1

Attached source links for this actor.

Why this actor is ranked here

Strike packages targeting Ukrainian territory at this scale depend on planning and target-selection layers that can foresee civilian harm and persistent escalation.

1 evidence link

Structural layer

Systemic enablers

These actors do not sit at the direct command or execution layer, but they materially fund, normalize, or otherwise enable the event chain.

Rank #4Fundercitizen groupSystemic enablerRussia

Russian public funding base

Shown in the structural layer as a funder with a current responsibility band of negligible.

supported 63.0

Responsibility

14.8

Actor-level role score before event harm is applied.

Culpability

12.9

Final contribution after event harm weighting.

Confidence

63.0

Current stability of the attribution.

Evidence links

1

Attached source links for this actor.

Why this actor is ranked here

The assault was carried out by a state military financed through public revenue, so the Russian public funding base is included as a structural funder rather than a direct perpetrator.

1 evidence link